Why 2026 will be a test of flexibility for automakers
According to a January analysis by Gartner, the global automotive industry enters 2026 in an environment of increasing uncertainty, with long-term predictability giving way to instability, Automotive News reported.
After 2025, marked by profit warnings, tariff shocks, and slower-than-expected adoption of electric vehicles, Gartner argues that scale and long-term planning are losing relevance due to geopolitical tensions, supply chain instability, and rapid technological change. Western automakers face a critical test: whether they can match China's pace of innovation while managing the integration of artificial intelligence, cybersecurity risks, and the complex transition to electric vehicles.
While many manufacturers see artificial intelligence as a path to greater flexibility, Gartner warns of an impending reality check as companies realize that their current AI capabilities offer fewer competitive advantages than expected. China will remain the most difficult and decisive market, and experts say that success in it increasingly determines global leadership. Strategies such as "made in China, for China", adopted by groups such as Volkswagen and Audi, can become a model for others. Electric vehicles are expected to confidently enter the mainstream in Europe as battery costs decrease and smaller, more affordable models appear, supported by renewed incentives in markets such as Germany. At the same time, Western automakers will reconsider the dependence of supply chains on China, even if deep technological interdependence makes complete separation unrealistic. Under these conditions, Gartner concludes that in 2026, the winners will not be large companies, but those with flexibility, speed, and organizational adaptability.