According to the GMK Center forecast, steel production in Ukraine next year may remain at the level of 2025 and amount to about 7.2 million tons in accordance with the baseline scenario.
Ukrainian metallurgical companies have already reached their maximum capacity for production growth, the report says.
GMK's optimistic scenario assumes a return to 7.6 million tons, while the pessimistic scenario assumes a decrease to 6.3-6.6 million tons due to the blocking of maritime logistics and restrictions on the European market, Kallanish notes.
"The main risks are related to the European market, which accounts for 81% of exports of finished products," the media report says. "The implementation of the CBAM carbon management mechanism is already creating technical barriers to imports. A stricter tariff quota system will be introduced in July, potentially reducing imports to the EU by 40-50%."
"If Ukraine does not receive a temporary exemption from CBAM, it will be extremely painful for the industry, and we may lose exports of rolled products and billets to the EU, which will lead to the closure of two or three of the seven operating blast furnaces in Ukraine." the article says.
Alternative markets remain inaccessible due to aggressive Chinese exports and high energy and logistics costs, the GMK Center notes. "The main hope lies in the domestic market, which can expand by 5-10% due to defense projects or post-war reconstruction," the conclusion says.
Ukrainian metallurgical companies reduced steel production in November compared to the previous month against the background of the Russian-Ukrainian war, unfavorable global market conditions and logistical problems, the National Metallurgical Association Ukrmetallurgprom reports.
The volume of steel production last month amounted to 641,100 tons, which is 1.2% less than in October, but 18.5% more than last year. However, rolled products production increased by 10.3% month-on-month and by 18.5% year-on-year to 589,100 tons.
.Pig iron production increased by 1.8% compared to the same period last year and amounted to 29.7% more than in the same period last year and amounted to 704,300 tons.
Steel production in January-November decreased by 3.1% year-on-year to 6.81 million tons, while rolled products increased by 4% to 5.97 million tons. The volume of pig iron production amounted to 7.2 million tons, an increase of 10.2%.
Author: Svyatoslav Abrosimov Bulgaria
Kallanish.com
