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Carbon Chain: Default emission values can double or triple CBAM costs

Carbon Chain: Default emission values can double or triple CBAM costs

Speaking at the second session of the SteelOrbis 2026 Spring Conference and the 94th IREPAS Conference, Jack Laing, carbon specialist at the British carbon metering platform CarbonChain, made a presentation on the EU Carbon Boundary Regulation Mechanism (CBAM).

Mr. Lang stated that the final phase of CBAM, which began on January 1, 2026, transformed this mechanism from a reporting mechanism to a financial mechanism for importers. CBAM costs are currently actively increasing, and importers will have to account for these costs during 2026, as otherwise the financial burden will fall on other parts of the supply chain.

Default values significantly increase costs

The CarbonChain representative highlighted the key point, which is the significant cost difference between the default values and the verified actual emissions data. Default values, which are based on EU-published average emissions values for the product (CN code), the production route and the country are often punitive. He stated that the difference between standard and actual emissions could lead to a two- to four-fold increase in costs, especially for products shipped from countries such as China, India and South Africa.

The CBAM cost calculation mechanism is structured to reflect the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), in order to ensure a level playing field. Emissions exceeding the reference levels are fully subject to CBAM fees, and the benchmarks are reduced annually in accordance with the phase-out of free ETS emissions permits. As a result, costs begin to rise from the first year, which increases over time.

He gave an example of a steel rolling plant with an emission intensity of 1.343 t co₂/t compared to a benchmark of 0.782 t co₂/t, which resulted in estimated costs of approximately 46.42 euros per ton, assuming an ETS price of 80 euros/t.

Strict deadlines for compliance

Mr. Lang stated that the deadlines for compliance are clearly defined. To carry out monitoring in 2026, operators must collect emission data throughout the year, prepare emission reports in the first quarter of 2027, and obtain third-party confirmation by the second quarter of 2027. Importers should start purchasing CBAM certificates on February 1, 2027 at the certificate price based on the average quarterly ETS price. The deadline for submitting CBAM declarations and issuing emission certificates in 2026 is September 30, 2027.

Starting in 2027, importers must meet quarterly obligations to obtain CBAM certificates covering at least 50 percent of emissions, making compliance more difficult. He noted that

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