German steel demand will not recover in 2024 – WV Stahl
According to the German steel association WV Stahl, demand for steel in Germany will not recover this year, and its weak development reflects the country's status as an industrial powerhouse.
According to the latest short-term forecast from Worldsteel, the industry association predicts that demand for steel in the country in 2024 will decrease by 7% year on year, and in 2025 will grow by just under 6%.
Demand for steel in the country this year is developing much weaker than was expected in April and there will be no real recovery in 2025, said Dr. Martin Thüringer, Chairman of the Worldsteel Economic Committee and Managing Director of WV Stahl.
“The expected decline of a further 7% to 26 million tonnes is "an absolute minimum, which is almost 10% below even the level of the global financial crisis," Thuringer added.
The weak development of steel demand in the country, he said, reflects the alarming state of Germany as an industrial site and the pronounced weakness of investment in construction sector, as well as mechanical engineering and equipment manufacturing. Almost all steel-consuming industries are currently in a state of regression that will not end until 2025. Therefore, according to Thüringer, next year we should expect nothing more than a technical counteraction to the high losses of recent years.
Since 2017, the German steel market, according to WV Stahl, has lost about 35% of its volume, which is more than twice the volume of the EU as a whole. At the same time, the global steel market grew by 7% from 2017 to 2024 due to India and China. Germany has dropped from sixth to ninth place in the ranking of the largest steel markets.
“Germany has long been the engine and anchor of stability in the EU, but now it has become a brake. Worldsteel's new short-term forecast is further evidence of the urgency of economic action to stop the rapid downward trend,” the industry association sums up.
WorldSteel previously downgraded its forecast for global steel demand in 2024. These volumes are expected to decrease by 0.9% compared to 2023 to 1.75 billion tons, while the previous forecast was for growth of 1.7% YoY to 1.79 billion tons. At the same time, in 2025, global steel demand will grow by 1.2% y/y after three consecutive years of decline to 1.77 billion tons.