Steel demand in Europe will recover only slightly
Steel demand in Europe is expected to recover from record lows in the coming periods, but the extent of recovery remains unclear, participants at the Kallanish European Steel Markets in Amsterdam concluded on Tuesday.
Although the European steel market should recover, industrial activity is difficult to predict the impact on steel demand and the role of energy consumption, said Alessandro Schiamarelli, director of market analysis and Economic research at Eurofer. He predicted EU GDP growth of 0.9% this year and 1.4% in 2026. But he also warned that "no real improvement in steel demand is expected due to tariff shocks in the United States."
Ronald de Haan, Director of Markets, Pricing and Services at Tata Steel in the Netherlands, expressed a little more optimism, saying that real demand is growing and the number of new orders is rising. The recovery should begin by the fourth quarter of 2025 or by the 1st quarter of 2026, he added.
Regarding the scenario of multiple threats such as trade restrictions and inflation, he stated that "we used to have economic cycles, but they no longer exist." The same applies to the replenishment cycle in the steel industry. "The market is so uncertain that everyone is reducing stocks, and this affects pricing," he said.
He also stressed that demand would not recover evenly across the EU. "The situation in Poland is completely different than in Germany, which largely depends on equipment exports," he said. Given the high level of energy costs, "the only thing you can do is reduce the cost of research and development, automation, and human resources, but this can lead to negative consequences."
"Energy is one of our biggest challenges," commented the head of ArcelorMittal Europe. climate change – Government issues by Stefan Tondo. He noted that this problem was recognized at the very top of the European Commission, but the clerical staff still adheres to the old mindset, which hinders progress. "The head is fast, but the legs are slow," he concluded.
Christian Kel Germany
kallanish.com