Decline in coil prices in Europe reached a minimum in July
The drop in roll prices, which has been observed for more than a month across Europe, may stop in mid-to-late July, when it becomes too risky to order imported goods with the approach of CBAM, market participants say.
According to one of the market participants. However, the main reason for the price reduction was the desire of the market leader, the combine, to compete for still attractive import offers at low prices. However, imports should arrive in Europe before October 1, which means that orders from overseas factories should be placed before mid-July, but not much later.
"That's why traders are cautious, and also because the volumes coming in October or later will lead to an increase in stocks before the end of the year, an end that people are trying to avoid," he notes.
Not all players agree with the reasoning, although they see an obstacle from January 1, 2026, when the CBAM will take effect. "There will be no point in importing later this year," says one customer.
Another insider notes that products of Japanese origin are now quite popular among importers, given the depreciation of the yen against the euro. A Japanese hot-rolled roll can be purchased for about 530 euros per ton ($621) in Antwerp, and a cold-rolled roll for 620 euros per ton.
Another country that has joined the fray is Indonesia, which is exempt from EU guarantees due to its status as a developing country. "At first, European customers ordered small volumes to check quality, but now they are moving to large orders," says an insider. HRC from Indonesia can be purchased at a price below 520 euros per ton on fca terms in Antwerp, and when delivered to Italy - even lower, at a price of 480-490 euros per ton, he notes.
At domestic European plants, most players see prices for HRC below 600 euros per ton, currently mostly in the 570-590 euro range, with some cheaper deals reported. CRC prices will maintain their premium over HRC prices at over 80 euros, and galvanized steel prices at over 100 euros. The decrease in prices for these products was less noticeable mainly due to additional energy costs associated with high electricity prices in most European countries.
Christian Kel Germany
Kallanish.com