Trading on the European HRC market has been suspended due to a new trade offer; suppliers are considering higher offers for January
On Friday, October 10, it became known that European manufacturers of hot-rolled steel are considering a new round of price increases, while market participants continue to receive news about the proposed trade measures.
Manufacturers in Europe are expected to raise their suggested prices on Friday, several sources told Fastmarkets about the January delivery dates.
Sources said that many European manufacturers have withdrawn their offers this week in anticipation of the announcement of new trade measures.
On Tuesday, the European Commission unveiled a proposal for a radical reform of its guarantees for steel imports, involving a reduction in duty-free quotas by about 47% and the introduction of a high ad valorem duty of 50% on any volumes exceeding the new threshold.
"Despite the fact that this[the tougher trade measures]was expected and lobbied by European steelmakers' associations, it still came as a shock, as it is expected to reduce half of steel imports into the EU. This could have disastrous consequences for the manufacturing industry in the EU," the distributor said.
However, the timing of the new measures is still not 100% clear.
But the carbon dioxide emissions control mechanism (CBAM) will be introduced in stages from January 1, 2026, which will make steel imports "very difficult, especially given the lack of clarity regarding benchmarks and default values," a source on the trading floor said.
"After all, you have no idea what the final import price will be," the Italian buyer said.
Against the background of this uncertainty and the growing risks associated with the import of materials, the sources said they expect local buyers to purchase more HRC from domestic factories.
"We expect European factories to take advantage of this opportunity to raise domestic prices (5 times). But as for deliveries in January, when, at least, CBAM will be introduced in stages and we will have fewer imports. In my opinion, an increase in prices for HRC with delivery in December is actually impossible, since there is still no demand," said the German buyer.
Several sources said they expect European plants to announce new offers at HRC for January delivery either next week or during Blechexpo steel in Stuttgart from October 21st to 24th. Buyers and sellers were offered a possible range of €630-650 ($729-752) per ton of Ex-work for guests.
"We expect[offers]of about €650 per ton of Ex-work for HRC, €750 per ton of Ex-work for cold-rolled coil (CRC) and €780 per ton of Ex-work for galvanized steel coils (hot-dip galvanized)," the second buyer in Germany said.
One supplier,