EUROFER: Steel consumption is not expected to increase significantly until Q1 2026
SteelOrbis spoke with Alessandro Schiamarelli, Director of Economic Research and Market Analysis at EUROFER, about the factors affecting the EU steel market.
How would you describe the current trends in steel demand in the EU steel market in the main sectors (construction, automotive, mechanical engineering, etc.)?
The current trend in steel consumption in the EU, despite two slight increases in a row over the past two quarters due to very low volumes recorded a year earlier, still reflects weak demand conditions. These conditions arose in the second quarter of 2022 due to disruptions related to the war, combined with unprecedented increases in energy prices and production costs. This negative cycle continued through the third quarter of 2024, mainly as a result of growing uncertainty in the global economy, rising interest rates before eight interest rate cuts were implemented, general manufacturing weakness, and growing uncertainty about U.
S. tariffs.
The consequences of the conflict in Ukraine and the energy shock for the steel industry, along with a deterioration in the overall economic outlook, triggered a serious recession (-8%) as early as 2022. These lingering negative factors have further affected steel consumption, leading to two more consecutive annual declines in 2023 and 2024 (-6% and -1.1%, respectively). In 2025, contrary to previous expectations of more favorable industrial development prospects and increased demand for steel, apparent steel consumption will decline again, albeit more modestly than previously forecast (-0.2% compared to -0.9% previously). This will be driven by the expected – though difficult to quantify – impact of U.
S. tariffs and the resulting uncertainty and disruptions to trade. In 2026, steel consumption is projected to finally recover (+3.1%, previously forecast at +3.4%), subject to a positive change in the prospects for industrial development and the easing of global tensions, which remain unpredictable at this stage.
In the first quarter of 2025, steel consumption increased year-on-year (+2.2%) for the second consecutive time (+0.5% in the previous quarter after three consecutive quarters of decline). Total consumption in the first quarter of 2025 was 33.8 million metric tons.
Shipments to the domestic market reflected the dynamics of demand and increased year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025 (+1.4% after -2% in the previous quarter). In 2024, they decreased overall (-2.8%), reflecting persistently weak demand for steel.
.Imports to the EU, including semi-finished products, decreased slightly (-0.6%) in the first quarter of 2025 after