HRC market in the EU, demand visibility remains weak
European hot-rolled coil prices remained stable on November 18, as market participants digested CBAM's recent preliminary price guidance, but pointed to a slight shift in fundamentals.
The European flat-rolled steel market remained largely illiquid that day due to short-term buyer interest, as market participants noted a continuing upward trend in inventories and a limited view of demand trends for 2026.
Despite the publication of preliminary CBAM benchmarks providing additional clarity on the potential cost of importing HRC in 2026, sources remain skeptical of any direct impact on the current market dynamics.
"Stocks are growing, and we don't see that there are many active buyers on the market," said one of the sources at the plant. "We expect further price increases, but it is difficult to achieve this without demand."
Discussing the import market, the same source pointed to a high level of financial risk, despite the fact that the proposals were presented on the basis of DDP, and the corresponding CBAM fees were paid by the seller. "No one knows the final prices, and[although]we've heard a lot of import proposals, they're still very risky, so I'm not sure if buyers will agree to that."
Platts estimated oil prices in Northwestern Europe at 610 euros per tonne at the Ruhr plant and in Southern Europe at 600 euros per tonne at the Italian plant, which are stable from day to day.
Platts estimated imports of HRC at 500 euros per ton CIF in Antwerp in the north and 500 euros per ton CIF in Italy in the south, which has not changed day by day.
Charles Thompson | Brother of Sakha