HRC's stable EU offerings contrast with weak imports and growing confusion in CBAM
European HRC manufacturers kept prices for January shipments at a consistently high level this week. Import activity remains weak, which is hampered by ongoing problems with compliance with CBAM requirements and quota restrictions. In addition, a leaked document published this week revealed the European Commission's long-awaited draft CBAM baseline values, providing EU importers with crucial data needed to estimate steel import costs from January 1, 2026. However, market sources claim that these figures are preliminary and can be adjusted, and most industry representatives are already questioning them.
In particular, it is reported that local plants in Northern Europe plan to receive new supply orders in January and February at a price of 630-650 euros per ton, as last week. However, according to sources, the available price levels for rolls for January delivery are estimated at 600-620 euros per ton, excluding January shipments, as in the previous week. Sources also report that EU factories are negotiating with automotive manufacturers to conclude supply agreements for 2026, which encourages them to maintain firm spot prices in order to maintain their negotiating positions.
Meanwhile, in Italy, although factories, as last week, were targeting January shipments of 620-630 euros per ton, the market price level for January shipments is still estimated at 590-600 euros per ton from the factory.
In the import segment, the estimated supply prices for HRC were set at 475-520 euros per ton CFR compared to 470-520 euros per ton CFR last week. The lower end of the range corresponds to the offers for HRC from Indonesia, Malaysia and India at a price of 475-490 euros per ton CFR, basically the same as last week. All prices do not include the cost of CBAM.
There have been offers to sell HRC from Turkey at a price of about 520 euros per ton CFR, including duties, basically the same as last week, but excluding CBAM costs, although, according to sources, traders from the EU this week offered HRC from Turkey at a price of 580-600 euros per ton DDP, including expenses for CBAM.
In addition, market insiders continue to report on import proposals for HRC from various global suppliers coming to the region, including DDP-based CBAM prices at 560-600 euros per ton, depending on the supplier, which is 20 euros higher than at a higher level, depending on the week. "We have heard that several deals have been concluded this week through traders at a price of 580-600 euros per ton per day for HRC from Vietnam, Algeria and Indonesia," a Spanish trader told SteelOrbis. This means that the difference between import prices excluding CBAM and offers is