India and EU roll Prices fall due to CBAM Benchmark leaks
India's supply of hot- and cold-rolled coils to Europe has dropped by $5-10 per ton per week, as market participants remain cautious after the release of preliminary CBAM benchmarks and await further clarity, Callanish is learning from market participants.
Traders say the leak has added to the uncertainty that is holding back purchases in the short term.
After India's HRC quota has been exhausted for the October-December period, some EU buyers are postponing commitments for the January-March quarter.
As of Wednesday, Indian-origin HRC offers fell by 5-10 USD per tonne to 560-565 USD per tonne cfr Antwerp or Bilbao or 500-505 USD per tonne FOB Mumbai for S235 grade, shipping end of December/beginning of January.
South Korea's EU offers were priced at about 626 US dollars/ton cfr Antwerp/Bilbao, while domestic EU plants quoted a price of about 650 euros/ton (752 US dollars/ton) delivered in February/March, according to one EU buyer.
He notes that in the current window "no one is buying", the certainty of CBAM suppresses appetite.
Selective import purchases are continuing, but he sees a risk of rising EU domestic prices in 2026 if supply decreases.
Callanish's analysis suggests that Indian HRC exporters could face CBAM costs of around 222 euros/tonne under the standard approach or 72-170 euros/tonne under the proven emissions route in 2026 (see Callanish's Passim).
This is a wide cost fluctuation that changes the competitiveness of supplies.
According to the EU Taric data, India's HRC quota (category 1A) was exhausted on November 25.
CRC offers fell by 5-15 USD per ton to 710-715 USD per ton cfr Antwerp/Bilbao, or 650-655 USD/ton FOB Mumbai, for DC01 grade.
The internal CRC levels in the EU are around €760/ton of base supply in February/March, with some importers estimating the cost of CBAM at €80-150/ton, one source says.
EU tariff data shows that 75,349 tons of CRC for the fourth quarter are available from the quota of 165,051 tons and 7,716 tons are awaiting distribution.
Indian offers of rolled steel decreased by $10-20 per ton to $680-690 per ton cfr Antwerp or to $620-630 per ton on FOB Mumbai terms.
The cost of HDG decreased by $5-10/ton to $770-780/ton CFR Antwerp or $710-720/ton FOB Mumbai for grade Z275/DX51 with a thickness of 1 mm, while PPGI retained a premium of $200/ton.
The available metal-coated quota (category 4A) was 18,638 tons out of a total of 280 tons and 182 tons awaiting distribution.
With a metal coating (category 4B), 68,556 tons remained unused out of 99,930 tons, and 1,325 tons are awaiting distribution.
Organic coating (category 5) completely