European steel market in the last week of November: weak demand, tighter quotas and price stabilization
In the last week of November, the European steel market remains cautiously stable due to constant uncertainty.
The absorption of the pre-cost of CBAM, rising import-related costs, and buyer fluctuations ahead of 2026 commitments continue to keep both domestic and import steel prices in a narrow, sideways range.
The HRC market remains stable as CBAM uncertainty drives spot purchases
Hot rolled roll (HRC) prices in the European flat rolled market remained largely stable, despite the pressure created by the preliminary CBAM values.
Buyers still waiting for clarity on the emissions commitments that will take effect in 2026 continue to avoid long-term orders and instead prefer short-term hand-to-hand purchases.
In this context, January shipments of HRC in Germany are estimated in the range of 610-620 euros/ton EXW, while Italian plants conclude deals at a price of 590-600 euros/ton.
DDP's supply offers to Italy in January 2026 are expected to fall in the range of 570-600 euros/ton.
These figures indicate that the week ends with almost unchanged prices.
As for imports, prices for HRC remain relatively stable; however, the tightening of quotas and the increase in charges related to CO₂ emissions do not allow imported materials to exert any significant downward pressure on EU domestic prices.
As a result, the European market does not experience the typical price softening effect usually caused by imports.
Steel production in the EU is declining amid weak demand and regulatory pressure
The latest data from the World Steel Manufacturers Association shows that the downward trend in steel production in Europe continues.
Crude steel production in the EU in October fell by 3.5% year-on-year to 10.8 million tons.
The total production volume in January-October reached 107.8 million tons, which is 3.4% less than in the same period last year.
This highlights the twin challenges facing European factories: subdued demand and a growing regulatory burden.
Behind this broader picture, there are changes in production strategies.
In regions where demand and industrial activity are concentrated, manufacturers of presses and tools are exploring geographical diversification to cope with cost inflation, with some options being evaluated outside the EU.
As for demand, the slowdown in the production of automobiles and household appliances combined with the transitional effects of CBAM suggests that end-use trends are taking shape first.