European steel prices remain at the same level as the market expects January changes
Despite the clarification of the CBAM rules, demand in the European steel market remains low, as a result of which the traditional dynamics of supply and demand, rather than regulation, remains the main factor in price changes.
In markets such as Germany and the Czech Republic, prices for HRC are kept in a narrow range of 605-615 euros per ton of EXW. As for CRC and HDG, rising energy prices continue to reduce profitability, and several plants are still hesitant to sell CRC at all. In Germany, CRC is trading at 700-710 euros per ton, while HDG is hovering around 710-730 euros per ton.
Italy: HRC prices continue to decline as demand remains weak
In Italy, prices for hot-rolled coils decreased to 580-600 euros per ton on EXW terms, while low activity on the spot markets during December exerted additional downward pressure. Interest in "green" steel remains weak, and there are only limited purchases. As for CRC and HDG, producers are trying to keep prices at 700-720 euros per ton, but weak domestic demand calls into question the sustainability of these prices. A similar trend continues in the long products sector, where rebar is estimated at 540-570 euros/ton excluding VAT, and wire rod at 580-600 euros/ton excluding VAT.
.North — Western Europe: The market is stabilizing at the level of 600-620 euros per ton, as plants plan to receive 620-660 euros per ton in January.
A strict balance between supply and demand remains in Northwestern Europe. The volume of transactions with HRC remains mainly at the level of 600-620 euros per ton of EXW. Manufacturers and trade sources report that since CBAM has fully clarified the situation, it is expected that in January 2026, the HRC proposals will gradually fluctuate in the range of 620-660 euros per ton. There are several key factors underlying this expectation.
First, the official introduction of CBAM has significantly increased the cost of imports, reducing the competitiveness of both Asian and non-Asian suppliers, and making manufacturing in the EU comparatively more attractive. At the same time, many European service centers that deliberately reduced inventories by the end of the year will have to replenish them in January. This seasonal replenishment is expected to put upward pressure on domestic prices.
Higher energy and logistics costs compared to the level at the end of last year also increase the cost of production, reinforcing their higher target prices. Meanwhile, the declining attractiveness of imports, especially from countries that have high obligations to CBAM, continues to push buyers towards European factories, providing additional