Marcegaglia is "quite positive about" the demand for steel in Europe in 2026
Steel demand in Europe will recover slightly in 2026, while prices are already showing some signs of recovery ahead of tougher trade measures and the introduction of a carbon control mechanism in the EU, said Antonio Marcegaglia, executive director of the Marcegaglia Group steel company, headquartered in Italy.
Although demand is "not brilliant," the underlying trend in Europe remains somewhat positive, Marcegaglia said, adding that he expects further gradual improvement driven by inventory reductions, following what he called excessive inventory build-up across the system.
"Overall, I am quite positive about the year-on-year increase in consumption, especially in the second half of the year, because I believe this will lead to a reduction in inventories," Marcegaglia said. "I think the system is overloaded with inventory today, so there will probably be some decrease in demand in the first quarter. But the final demand, I believe, will be a bit positive overall, especially in the second half."
Infrastructure spending, especially in Germany and the machinery sector, is expected to grow, while demand for cars is expected to remain broadly stable rather than declining.
However, the more decisive factor is the supply. Marcegaglia expects steel imports to the EU to decline sharply as existing safeguards are replaced and uncertainty related to CBAM is holding back supplies, Platts CEO said in an interview this week. Platts is a member of S&P Global Energy.
"As is well known, imports will be reduced by at least 50% in the second half of the year, but I also believe that there will be a reduction in the first half of the year due to CBAM uncertainty," Marcegaglia said. "Thus, even if there is no minus 50% for the whole year, imports may decrease by 40% or 35% year-on-year, as there will also be some reduction in the first half of the year."
. This tightening has already led to higher prices, he added. According to Marcegaglia, European prices for hot-rolled coils, which at their lowest level fell to about 530-540 euros per ton, recovered by almost 100 euros. "We are seeing a significant rebound from the bottom, and there is every opportunity for it to continue," he said.
CBAM
The CBAM consumer price index will put further upward pressure, he said.
"Some market participants are talking about a price of 40 to 60 euros per metric ton, and some predict it at the level of Eur80-100
It is really an unknown figure today. We're talking about about 8-10% of the cost of the product, so in any case, this is an additional important support.