The EU steel market starts 2026 on a cautious note
In the first days of the new year, the European steel market is showing a calm picture, characterized by low trading activity and limited price fluctuations, as the festive slowdown continues to put pressure on market dynamics.
While underlying demand remains weak, market participants are increasingly focusing on forward-looking expectations, regulatory cost risks, and supply-side changes. Although there are selective price increases in several segments, these changes are largely driven by cost pressures and risk perceptions, rather than a real recovery in end-user demand.
Recent changes in production and investment indicate that the restructuring of the European steel sector is being carried out in a strategic rather than uniform manner. ArcelorMittal's decision to permanently close one of its agglomeration plants in Gijon, Spain, as well as transfer the plant in Hunedoara, Romania, to UMB Group, indicates a continued shift away from high-cost and carbon-intensive assets. In contrast, Liberty Steel has resumed production at its Dalzell sheet rolling plant in Scotland under a government-backed contract, which has partially restored production capacity. In Italy, uncertainty remains about the future of Acciaierie d'Italia's assets, which have long been affected by financial and operational problems.
In early January, prices for flat rolled products across Europe remained generally stable, while manufacturers cautiously tested higher price levels. In Germany, the prices for hot-rolled roll (HRC) from the factory are approximately 620-630 euros per ton, for cold-rolled roll (CRC) - 720-725 euros per ton, and for hot-dip galvanized roll (HDG) - 735-740 euros per ton. In Italy, HRC is sold at a price of 615-625 euros per ton, CRC at 720-725 euros per ton, and HDG at 725-735 euros per ton, while in Spain HRC is offered at a price of 630-650 euros per ton from the factory.
Despite this slight increase compared to the previous month, price dynamics are still driven primarily by expectations related to energy costs, carbon dioxide emissions, and changes in the trade regime, rather than a recovery in physical demand. Buyers view the current price increase not as the beginning of a sustained recovery, but as an early reflection of anticipated financial risks. Trading volumes remain low and the market continues to experience price increases. Market sources report that one of the leading European producers has distributed offers at a price of about 660 euros per ton.
A significant part of the market participants expects a reduction