ArcelorMittal: margins are stable, but under pressure
Despite the decline in Ebitda in 2025, ArcelorMittal demonstrated a sharp increase in net profit and confirmed the reliability of its model thanks to strategic investments and the expected improvement in the European regulatory framework. However, an analysis of the published data shows that cash generation is limited by high capital investments and growing debt, while the group is conducting a large-scale reorganization of its employees, one third of whom work in Luxembourg.
ArcelorMittal ended 2025 with sales of $61.35 billion, down 1.7% from the $62.44 billion recorded in 2024. The Group attributes this decrease mainly to a 2.3% decrease in average selling prices for steel. In conditions that were described as difficult, in particular due to lower international prices and tariffs in North America, Ebitda amounted to 6.541 billion, which is 7.3% lower than the 7.05 billion recorded in 2024.
The key indicator highlighted by the group is Ebitda per tonne, which reached $121 in 2025. According to the official report, this level is "more than double" the lows of the previous cycle. The published documents do not provide an accurate quantitative reference to previous cycles; thus, the comparison represents a qualitative assessment by management of the structural evolution of margins.
The group's net earnings per share were $3.15 billion, compared to $1.34 billion in 2024, and earnings per share were $4.13. Adjusted net income was $2.94 billion, or $3.85 per share. The increase in net profit, despite the drop in Ebitda, was mainly due to improved financial and tax indicators. The press release says that the increase in adjusted net income reflects, in particular, lower exchange differences and other financial expenses, as well as lower tax deductions, which are partially offset by lower Ebitda and higher interest expenses.
Limited cash flow
Segment analysis shows the opposite trend. In North America, annual Ebitda decreased to $1.237 billion from $1.819 billion a year earlier. The Group refers to the impact of section 232 tariffs and maintenance operations in Mexico. On the other hand, in Europe, Ebitda increased to $2.028 billion from $1.624 billion in 2024, driven by a more favorable price-performance ratio and improved operational performance. In Brazil, Ebitda decreased to $1.440 billion from $1.803 billion amid lower prices. In the mining segment, there was