ArcelorMittal expects tariffs and CBAM to restore production volumes and profits in 2026
ArcelorMittal expects global steel demand, excluding China, to grow by 2% in 2026, while production and shipments in all regions will increase compared to 2025, driven by improved operations and trade protection measures, according to a February 5 statement.
In Europe, the company predicts that the combined effect of the carbon boundary adjustment mechanism and new tariff quotas will lead to increased capacity utilization, which will help it regain market share and restore profitability, the largest European steel producer said for the entire year 2025 and the fourth quarter in a row. -income statement for the quarter of 2025.
"The year 2025 was a turning point for the global steel industry and ArcelorMittal," said Aditya Mittal, Chief Executive Officer of Arcelor Mittal, adding: "Although the ongoing geopolitical instability has led to serious challenges, important foundations have also been laid to create a more favorable operating environment in the future."
"The global economy has refocused on increasing the sustainability of domestic supply, including widespread tariffs, which has led more and more countries to increase the competitiveness of production. "Nowhere has this been more necessary than in Europe, where ArcelorMittal has significant and high-quality operations," Mittal said.
Impact on trade
"One of the most important developments was the proposal for new trade measures in Europe and CBAM improvements aimed at equalizing carbon prices," Mittal said, adding: "Collectively, this will allow European producers to return to sustainable use and generate significant profits from capital."
.It is estimated that the new TRQ trade measures will reduce imports of flat and long products to the EU by 10 million metric tons compared to 2024 levels, which will support the domestic market. ArcelorMittal stated that it has the capacity to fully meet demand, as existing furnaces can operate at a higher load, and idle units can be restarted as demand recovers.
New facilities are expected to be commissioned in 2026, including an electric arc furnace for the production of long products in Gijon and an expansion of the EDP in Sestao to increase the production of flat products.
ArcelorMittal's steel production in Europe in 2025 was 29.17 million tons, compared with 31.21 million tons in 2024. In the fourth quarter of 2025, European production totaled 6.4 million tons, down 11.8% from the previous quarter and 16.9% year-on-year, mainly due to