IREPA short-term forecast: March 2026
Growing uncertainty in the global long products market due to the war in the Middle East
The war in the Middle East has increased the level of uncertainty in the global long products market. Energy prices are skyrocketing, supply chains are disrupted, bunker fuel and freight tariffs are rising, and inventories are falling. It is still too early to predict the general consequences of the war. While concerns about the supply of goods from the eastern regions have led to higher prices in Western markets, demand is not improving, which is not surprising, especially considering that we have no idea how long this war will last or to what extent it may spread. Another important question is what will happen to scrap metal prices.
Investments will be suspended, no panic buying, despite the price increase at EU enterprises
Investments will be suspended, given the high level of uncertainty around the world. EU factories have reacted by raising prices, but as the market is still waking up after the winter season, this has not led to panic buying.
Risky imports to the EU due to lack of regulatory clarity
The incompetence or unwillingness of Brussels to announce the final CBAM rules and how protective measures will operate after June 2026 makes imports into the EU extremely risky.
Turkish factories are facing low local and export demand, so it is necessary to adjust the use of production facilities accordingly.
In Turkey, construction work is proceeding slowly, and exports decreased by 20% compared to the same period last year. Factories adjust their production depending on the demand they receive.
U.
S. Supreme Court gives Importers some breathing room, but new tariffs are likely
The US Supreme Court's decision against Trump's tariffs gives partial respite to importers. However, it probably won't be long before the new tariffs will be introduced under other names.
The current state of the market is unstable, the prospects are unpredictable
It is very difficult to talk about competition with the current level of protectionism, geopolitical problems and uncertainty in the market. Under the current general market conditions, the current state of the market can be described as unstable with unpredictable and unstable prospects.
Irepas.com