IREPAS: Global steel market is stabilizing amid weaker growth, changing demand and increasing attention to access
Global economic growth in 2026 will remain positive, but will weaken compared to previous expectations, which will support demand for steel, but will not lead to significant growth, Fastmarkets reported during the 94th conference of the International Association of Manufacturers and Exporters of Rebar, which was held in Amsterdam on April 26-28.
Slower-than-expected GDP growth, persistent oversupply, and geopolitical turmoil, especially related to the Middle East, are changing steel markets, shifting competitive advantages from pure economic efficiency to supply reliability, domestic capacity, and market accessibility, said Alexander Gordienko, Celsa Group Export Director, during his presentation.
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Global steel production and demand for long products: uneven recovery in different regions
The global economic situation remains unstable. According to updated information from the International Monetary Fund for April 2026, global GDP growth expectations for 2026 have been revised down to 3.1% from 3.3% projected in January, assuming that the military conflict in the Middle East ends by the middle of the year.
However, this growth is not enough to significantly restore steel consumption.
The World Steel Manufacturers Association expects global steel demand to grow by only 0.3% in 2026, which is a moderate recovery from a low level rather than a sharp jump.
The demand for steel varies from region to region. The highest growth rates continue to be observed in India, where growth of 7.4% is expected in 2026. According to forecasts, demand in Africa will increase by 3.8%, in the USA, Canada and Mexico - by 2.1%, and in Europe, along with the UK and the countries of the Asia—Pacific region - by 1.3%.
Meanwhile, steel consumption in the Middle East is expected to decline by 7.4% in 2026 amid an unfavorable geopolitical situation.
Trends in construction largely explain these trends.
In Europe, housing construction remains weak, while infrastructure and government spending provide limited support.
According to Gordienko, housing construction remains a key driver of growth, and the European Commission estimates that about 2 million homes per year are needed to meet demand, although it remains unclear whether governments will be able to implement these projects, with bureaucracy being the main obstacle to their implementation.
A similar pattern is observed in the US construction market.: activity in the residential sector is declining, and demand for steel is supported mainly by individual infrastructure, energy, and data center projects, rather than by