The volatility of the market highlights the accuracy of the MEPs' forecasts for Europe
The accuracy of the MEPs' forecasts for prices for 12 months was confirmed by a slowdown in steel purchases in Europe, which halted a six-month rise in prices for rolled steel in May.
At the beginning of 2026, prevailing market sentiment among businesses and many supply chain participants suggests that hot-rolled coil prices in Europe will continue to rise throughout the second quarter and possibly into the second half of the year. These expectations were largely driven by the anticipated tightening of supplies related to the planned reduction in EU import quotas from July 1, 2026.
However, MEPs took a more cautious view. Instead of expecting a prolonged shortage of supply, analysts predicted that buyers would act in advance to provide themselves with materials before the introduction of tougher trade protection measures. As a result, MEPs predicted that the upward trend in prices would begin to weaken in July as inventories increased throughout the supply chain.
As detailed in the MEPs' May issue of the European Steel Review, this scenario has now been largely implemented, resulting in 95.1% accuracy in the MEPs' 12-month forecast. for the European hot-rolled roll produced in May 2025.
The conflict in the Middle East further complicated the market situation in the second quarter. Rising commodity prices, increased freight rates and concerns about disruptions in global trade prompted MEPS International to slightly revise its short-term forecast, slightly extending the expected peak of the price cycle for the summer period.
Despite these geopolitical events, the main trends expected by the MEPs remained unchanged. European Parliament steel Price Forecasting analyst Amit Kumar said: "The upward trend in European prices that began in November 2025 has softened in recent weeks as buyers become more cautious in their purchasing strategy. Increased inventory levels throughout the supply chain, combined with persistently high prices, are holding back consumer activity."
The latest forecast by MEPs for European roll prices shows that they are expected to remain broadly stable in the summer months. There may be some additional upward pressure later in the summer, as buyers will gain clarity on all the implications of lower tariff quotas on imports, which are due to be introduced in both the EU and the United Kingdom from July 1.
Awards for the forecast of MEPs accuracy
The MEPs have recently received official recognition of the reliability of their forecasts