EU protective measures on steel adopted to support the domestic market of rolled products in the second half of the year
The new EU safeguard mechanism, designed to address the negative effects of global overcapacity in the bloc's steel market, is expected to support domestic flat-rolled steel prices in the second half of the year, market sources say.
This mechanism is much more restrictive than the system of protective measures first introduced in 2018, which resulted in a 47% reduction in import volumes and a 50% duty on any materials exceeding quotas. Sources say that the tightening of restrictions represents a major shift and is already changing customer behavior.
"In my opinion, the import has been exhausted," said one of the Italian service centers. "In the coming weeks, we will see a significant increase in European prices," he said, noting that imports could become profitable again if the price gap between Europe and Asia widens further.
One Italian manufacturer said that the new conditions had already led to an increase in the minimum price. "I expect that the new target price will be increased by at least 50 euros per ton. If the buyers are not ready, the manufacturers will just wait. At the moment, the issue of import is not being discussed."
On July 15, the Platts agency, part of S&P Global Energy, last estimated domestic hot-rolled coils in Southern Europe at 695 euros per ton from a factory in Italy, which is 145 euros more than it has been proposed since the introduction of the new measures on October 7, 2025. Imports of HRC in the region were estimated at 580 euros per ton for Southern European countries, which is 95 euros more than in the same period last year.
The import availability of cold‑rolled and hot-dip galvanized steel has increased further, as production capacity in Europe, on the contrary, is still limited by fewer cold rolling and galvanizing lines to the overcapacity observed in HRC. Data from the European Commission shows that three HDG 4B quotas — for China, Turkey and "other countries" — have already been exhausted, which may force traditional importers to purchase raw materials domestically.
Availability has also been limited due to the EU anti-dumping investigation into CRC imports from India, Japan, Taiwan, Turkey and other countries. Vietnam, which creates another pressure on the recycling market.
"Some of my clients stopped importing for several months," said a source at one of the factories in Germany. "HRC, we have excess production capacity in Europe, but the number of[galvanizing]and cold rolling lines is limited."
As a result, prices rose sharply in the first half of the year, and many participants expected further increases throughout the year. On July 15, Platts last assessed the domestic CRC in Northern Europe at