Geopolitical risks are increasingly affecting steel trade, flight duration and transportation costs, said Maria Bertzeletu, senior market analyst at Signal Group, speaking at the SteelOrbis Fall 2026 conference and the 95th IREPAS meeting in Belgrade on September 28.
According to her, revenues in the segment of dry cargo transportation have increased significantly. In the period from September 1 to September 23, Capesize's average profit reached $50,300 per day, which is 96% more than a year earlier. The average profitability of Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize class vessels was $21,300, $19,700, and $16,900 per day, respectively. Bertzeletu stressed that the cost of transporting individual shipments of steel largely depends on the availability of a suitable vessel in the right region.
Risks in the Black Sea increase transportation and insurance costs
According to her, the expansion of the military risk zone of the London-based Joint Military Committee in the Black Sea has increased transport risks and insurance costs. The estimates she referred to show that war risk insurance can reach 3-5% of the cost of the vessel. Higher rates for transportation from the Black Sea to Turkey were also reported, but Bertzeletu did not see any confirmed transactions at such levels.
At the same time, scrap metal cargoes compete with steel for available tonnage. The demand for scrap metal supports voyages in the Mediterranean, and the high volume of shipments and the limited number of ships have contributed to the growth of freight in the Persian Gulf of the United States. The analyst also noted the high rate of scrap metal shipments to the Eastern Mediterranean, stressing that it was more about market indicators than confirmed contracts.
China accounts for 41.6% of registered steel shipping
In the structure of maritime steel trade, China accounts for 41.6% of registered volumes, followed by Japan with 10.8% and South Korea with 9.2%. At the same time, the supply lines have become much more fragmented.
In January-August 2026, global steel shipping decreased by 3.3% year-on-year, although volumes increased to about 23.2 million tons in August from 21 million tons a year earlier.
Steel shipments across the Black Sea have declined sharply
The effects of geopolitical tensions were particularly noticeable in the Black Sea. Loading at individual Russian ports on the Black and Azov Seas related to steel cargo decreased by about 79% year-on-year in July-August, and the number of registered flights decreased from 135 to 21. During the period from September 1 to September 22, there were no calls to the selected ports or shipments of goods.
Shipments of steel from Russia and the Baltic states also decreased and in July-August averaged 0.62 million tons per month against 0.73 million tons in January-June.