In 2027, steel prices in Germany, according to MBI Research analyst Peter Fertig, will generally be higher than current levels.
He presented his calculations at the recent Stahltag industry event in Frankfurt, which was organized by MBI Infosource.
Fertig predicts that the average price of a hot-rolled roll in 2027 will be 718 euros per ton, with a range of possible values ranging from 660 to 780 euros per ton.
For a cold-rolled roll, the base scenario assumes a price of 796 euros per ton. At the same time, the possible corridor is estimated at 735-835 euros per ton.
According to HRC, quotations in 2027 are expected to be 40-50 euros per ton higher than in 2026. According to CRC, the growth will be more moderate when compared with the average level of 791 euros per ton reached by the end of August.
Assessing the forecast made at last year's event, Fertig admitted that he was too cautious: prices rose more than expected. Back then, his models pointed to base scenarios of 595 euros per ton for HRC and 680 euros per ton for CRC.
The analyst noted that a similar situation has developed in the markets of long products, including rebar and wire rod. According to him, the rebar turned out to be about 20 euros per ton more expensive than expected, and the wire rod was about 40 euros per ton.
In the forecast for 2027, the base price of rebar is 678 euros per ton. In a pessimistic scenario, it may drop to 630 euros per ton, and in an optimistic scenario, it may rise to 715 euros per ton.
Fertig identified a range of 725-810 euros per ton for wire rod, and the most likely base level is 777 euros per ton.
He also said that he had recently been forced to adjust his mathematical models due to changes related to new trade measures and the CBAM cross-border carbon regulation mechanism.
"We expect prices to be closer to the best case scenario than the worst case scenario," he stressed.