Brazil's steel production may decline in 2026 as lower-cost imports continue to put pressure on the domestic market, the Aco Brasil Chamber of Industry said.
The country's steel production will fall to 32.4 million metric tons in 2026, down 2.2% from a year earlier, driven by a 10% increase in imports to 6.6 million tons over the period. According to Aco Brasil, these figures do not take into account the impact of anti-dumping duties, which are expected to take effect in the first half of the year.
"Our factories are operating at 66% capacity due to predatory imports, but we need to increase productivity by about 80-85%," Aco Brasil said in a statement, association executive president Marco Polo de Mello Lopez said at a press conference on December 16.
Imports will also put pressure on sales in the domestic market, and shipments are expected to fall to 20.8 million tons next year, down 1.7% from 2025, the association said. Imports are expected to reach a record 6.6 million tons, up 3.9% from the previous record of 6.4 million tons projected for 2025, according to Aco Brasil.
Apparent consumption, the sum of production and imports minus exports, will increase by 1% year-on-year to 27 million tons in 2026, mainly due to an increase in import volumes.
Revised forecasts for 2025
The Chamber of Commerce lowered its forecast for import growth in 2025 from 19% to 7.5%, as lower domestic prices are holding back a sharp rise in prices for foreign metals.
According to the revised forecast, imports of rolled steel will amount to 5.7 million tons, which is 20% more than previously estimated (32%).
Imports have already reached a record high of 6 million tons as of November 2025, an increase of 7% year-on-year. According to Aco Brasil, the total volume of imports may increase to 6.4 million tons by the end of the year.
Despite reaching record levels, import inflows decreased in the second half of the year. As a result, Aco Brasil's initial forecast of a 7 million tonne increase in imports per year is likely to fall short.
In addition to lowering prices, Brazil's quota policy has helped reduce import volumes, sources told Argus. This regime imposes a 25% duty on volumes exceeding the quota threshold for 19 types of rolled steel.
Importers are also afraid of the introduction of anti-dumping duties, which are due to take effect in a couple of months. According to market participants, maritime trade has become more risky, as duties of up to $600 per ton may be charged when unloading in Brazilian ports.
New anti-dumping duties could reverse the increase in imports, and volumes are likely to fall rather than rise if the measures take effect. Will it happen
