The cold-rolled coils market in the EU is striving to improve tightness
The cold-rolled roll market in the EU is currently assessing the consequences of production disruptions and import restrictions in the flat rolled segment, which is becoming increasingly narrow.
On October 25-26, a fire broke out at the Marcegaglia plant in Ravenna (Italy), one of the manufacturer's three plants for the production of cold—rolled steel (CRC), which led to a production shutdown. It is unclear which line was affected and how long it will be offline — the company declined to comment. But some sources suggest that it could be a long-term shutdown. The capacity of CRC's three plants in Marcegaglia is about 2.5 million tons per year, and the company is currently the main supplier to Italy.
Italian buyers were also concerned about the overall volume of shipments before the fire, given the upcoming quota changes and the ongoing anti-dumping investigation into shipments from India, Japan, Vietnam, Taiwan and Turkey.
Several Spanish and Italian buyers have informed Argus that they will have to reorient supply chains from imports back to domestic producers, assuming that the latter will start producing more CRC for sale on the commercial market; in recent years, EU producers have been reducing production of some varieties due to lower demand and high costs compared to other regions.
Before the fire, Marcegaglia had already sold off its capacity in the fourth quarter, and some buyers were paying up to 740-750 euros per ton for smaller shipments due to supply problems. This is even more than buyers pay for hot-dip galvanized (HDG) material. This phenomenon is not unique to Europe, as Chinese exporters offer higher prices for galvanized material. At least one German buyer ordered CRC from a large Chinese factory this week, while other Chinese manufacturers were offering around 610-620 euros per ton of cfr, including dumping duties.
The five countries targeted by the dumping investigation accounted for 67% of all CRC imports to the EU in 2024 and about 63% of imports in January-August, so total import flows can be significantly reduced if dumping is proven.
At the same time, the upcoming change in protective measures, which is expected to be put into effect in April, means that after its introduction, the duty-free quota will decrease to 1.73 million tons per year, which is 53% less than in 2024.
The tensions in the EU stand in stark contrast to the UK market, which turned into a kind of dumping ground after Tata Steel halted its continuous annealing line in March, which meant protective measures were lifted. The company still produces whole grain paper for