Dry cargo logistics - SOZHT: the size of the fleet on the Russian Railways network is balanced
Russian Railways has completed the task of removing surplus wagons from the network, and the size of the required fleet is in balance, according to rolling stock operators. Igor Sankovsky, Executive Director for railway transport operators, analyzes operational responsibility, car construction and auto reflection in the market, and also analyzes Argus.
How do you assess the balance of the fleet on the Russian Railways network? And how is it that with a similar methodology, the results of calculating the required fleet for operators and state-owned companies differ markedly?
Let's start with the definition of the coordinate system: there is a single document on this issue, agreed upon by both Russian Railways and the SOZH: "Methodological recommendations for calculating the required fleet of freight wagons" (Methodology). There may be other documents or methodologies aimed at determining the optimal number of freight cars on the network, but we have not agreed on them, and we are not considering the results of their application right now.
The methodology primarily uses the concept of a working fleet and, as a result of assessing its sufficiency, the concept of balance — a deficit or surplus of working rolling stock. When we talk about the required fleet, the cash fleet, the balance or the turnover of the car in the framework of the Methodology, it's all about the working fleet. The methodology does not contain the concepts of "excess fleet", "excess fleet", and does not compare the working fleet with the total number of registered wagons.
A wagon that is present on the network and can be used for loading is counted as part of the working fleet. If you do not go into details, then the required fleet depends, firstly, on the declared cargo base — the planned loading, and secondly, on the average turnover of wagons required for the export of this base.
When comparing the resulting value of the required fleet, which is required for the export of all cargo planned for transportation, with the number of all wagons ready for transportation (available fleet), we will understand what the balance of the fleet is: is it deficient or excessive. Thus, the balance of the fleet is the difference between the entire existing work park and the required work park.
For example, on average in 2024, the required fleet was 1,016 thousand wagons, and the available working fleet was 1,181 thousand units. The difference between these figures is an average annual surplus of 165 thousand wagons. And on average, for the first half of this year, the surplus has already amounted to 236 thousand wagons of the working fleet.
If we consider these indicators by individual types of rolling stock, then by the end of the half—year we see a surplus in the segments of gondola cars - 108 thousand units, tank cars — 30 thousand, fitting platforms — 25 thousand, covered wagons — 30 thousand. For hoppers: cement and mineral carriers have a surplus of 3.5 and 7.8 thousand wagons, respectively, whereas for