Iron ore exports from Ukraine have collapsed: China is reducing purchases
According to the results of January 2026, the mining industry of Ukraine reduced iron ore exports by 34.4% compared to January 2025 to 2.05 million tons. If compared with the previous month, the figure decreased by 7.5%. This is evidenced by GMK Center calculations based on data from the State Customs Service.
China has traditionally been the largest consumer of Ukrainian iron ore. During the month, shipments of raw materials in this direction amounted to 855.5 thousand tons (-50.4% YoY; -23.8% YoY). 302.95 thousand tons (-25.3% YoY; -5% YoY) were sent to Slovakia, 282.39 thousand tons (-29.3% yoy; +8,9% m/m).
Revenue from the export of air defense systems in January amounted to $160.25 million (-0.7% MOM; -35.1% YoY).
Gmk Center expects that in 2026, exports of iron ore from Ukraine will decrease by 5% YoY, or 1.5 million tons, to 29 million tons. The main factor is the decrease in iron ore prices in China and the deterioration of the competitive position of Ukrainian suppliers in this market against the background of the launch of the Simandou project in Guinea and higher logistical costs. An increase in demand in the EU due to regulatory restrictions on steel imports may partially compensate for the losses. The forecast is based on market factors without taking into account military risks.