Production cuts in Mexico will last until February
According to a survey by the Mexican Association of Purchasing Managers IMEF, Mexico's manufacturing sector contracted in February for the 23rd month in a row, albeit at a slower pace.
The manufacturing PMI rose last month to 47.2 from a revised 46.7 in January, reflecting a slowdown in the pace of contraction compared with the previous month. Since March 2024, the business activity index has been below the 50% threshold between growth and contraction.
The sub-indexes of the IMEF Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for new orders, production and employment rose from January to February, with new orders rising 0.7 points to 45.6, while production rose 0.1 points to 46.3, and this is the 23rd month of contraction.
The employment subindex showed the strongest increase, rising 1.1 points to 45.5, although this is still the 25th month of decline.
Non-manufacturing sector
The IMEF index of business activity in the non-manufacturing sector increased by 0.6 points to the threshold value of 50,"this indicates an early stabilization in the services and trade sectors with mixed signs indicating recovery."
The Business Activity Index (PMI) has been declining for 12 of the last 14 months, rising above 50 in October and November 2025, suggesting that any recovery "remains fragile and has no clear trajectory." As part of the PMI, the sub-indexes of new orders and production turned into growth, with new orders rising 1.6 points to 50.1 and production by 1.6 points to 50.4. Employment also increased 0.6 points to 49.8, but still declined for the 20th month in a row.
Forming a forecast for both business activity indices, IMEF noted that higher-than-expected revised GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 1.8%, driven by "steady retail sales" and "a slight recovery in manufacturing and construction", is likely to lose momentum, as "the main indicators of the aggregate demand points to a decline and steady weakening during 2026."
As for the non-manufacturing sector, "private consumption has not increased, and consumer confidence suggests that the situation may worsen."
As for the manufacturing industry, "exports have started to lose momentum Public and private investments remain low labor market the market situation has deteriorated," and uncertainty about domestic and foreign economic policy is affecting the prospects for GDP growth.