Eurofer forecasts EU steel consumption growth of 1.3% in 2026
Apparent steel consumption (taking into account total steel production, imports and exports) in the EU countries in 2026 may grow by 1.3%, to 134 million tons, Eurofer predicts. In 2027, consumption may reach 135 million tons.
The Association points out that the increase is mainly due to the exceptionally low base of previous years, rather than a recovery in demand: even taking into account the expected increase in steel consumption in Europe, it will remain at a level significantly below the pre-pandemic level - by about 11 million tons in 2026 and by 9 million tons in 2027.
In 2025, according to preliminary data from the European Steel Producers Association, apparent steel consumption increased by 2.4%, to 132 million tons. In 2025, imports in the EU accounted for 29% of total consumption, which is 2 percentage points higher than in 2024. Indonesia increased exports of rolled steel to the EU most significantly (+263%), while shipments from Turkey increased by 24%, from China by 31%, from Ukraine by 8%, and from North Korea by 2%. At the same time, steel supplies from India and Taiwan fell by 28% and 15%, respectively.
Real steel consumption in the EU in 2026 may grow by 0.8% after an expected 0.2% drop by the end of 2025.
At the same time, Eurofer notes the first signs of a recovery in industrial activity in steel-consuming industries. So, in the third quarter of 2025, the SWIP (Steel Weighted Industrial Production) index increased by 1.8% after falling during the previous six quarters. By the end of 2025, the decrease in the index is expected to be insignificant - 0.3% (in 2024, a drop of 3.6%), and in 2026, the increase may reach 1.9%, in 2027 - +2.2%.