Participants in an MEPS discussion at UK Metals Expo 2026 said an influx of steel imported before the UK’s CBAM comes into force could cause serious port congestion. One of them dubbed the scenario “Portageddon.”
Paul Whitehouse, managing director of Gonvarri Industries’ UK Steel & Alloy division, made the remarks during the “Carbon steel: trends and price dynamics” discussion at the NEC Birmingham exhibition centre on 4 November.
Nathan Lawrence, head of strategic marketing at Tata Steel UK, said UK buyers had purchased large volumes of imported steel ahead of the government’s introduction on 1 July of reduced tariff quotas and new 50% duties on imports above the quota. As a result, stocks have increased, and it will take time to move them through the supply chain. In the near term, this will put pressure on prices. Lawrence estimates that stocks of hot-dip galvanized coil will not return to normal before summer 2027.
Whitehouse, however, believes significant volumes of imports continue to enter the market even after the new trade protection measures were introduced. In his view, the additional inflow will put a serious strain on UK ports. Steel shipments arriving ahead of the CBAM taxes taking effect on 1 January could lead to “Portageddon.”
“At the same time, I think a shortage of hot-rolled coil will emerge before the third quarter,” Whitehouse added.
Lawrence said Tata Steel UK had asked the government for an annual quota for imports of hot-dip galvanized coil about 260,000 tonnes lower than the one the authorities ultimately set.
“It is surprising that import quotas could cover 75% of demand, when the UK government’s target is 50%,” he said.
During the discussion, Gareth Stace, former director general of industry association UK Steel, criticized some provisions of the UK’s new quota system. He said the quota volume for Category 4, which includes hot-dip galvanized coil, had been set “incorrectly.” He also called the upcoming launch of the UK CBAM a “disaster.” Stace believes that higher CBAM charges on imports into the EU could divert cheap steel to the UK market.
Uncertainty over UK CBAM called a “disgrace”
Godfrey Watt, president of the International Steel Trade Association, strongly criticized the uncertainty surrounding the introduction of the UK CBAM.
“It is a public disgrace that we still do not know all the rules,” Watt said.
Stace welcomed the UK government’s efforts to protect the steel industry. He said the nationalization of British Steel and Speciality Steel UK should not become a long-term solution, but it presents a “unique opportunity to bring the UK’s steel companies together.”
Stace also backed the positions of Lawrence and Laura Thomas, commercial director at 7 Steel UK: both called for lower electricity costs for industry. They believe energy costs for UK steelmakers should be brought into line with those of producers in France and Germany.
“How much would it cost to give us that parity? £50 million a year,” Stace said.
“If there is a minister in the room, let them come out and announce that the government will do it,” he added.
Thomas, meanwhile, citing research for MEPS’ European Steel Report, noted that weak demand remains the main driver of steel price trends in the UK. She said it would continue to shape the market in 2027.
“We are finding the current market tough, and overproduction is forcing us to look for alternative sales channels,” Thomas said.
This week, MEPS is holding two panel discussions at UK Metals Expo on the UK carbon and stainless steel markets, as well as presenting analysis and forecasts at stand B16. MEPS experts are showcasing the new MEPS 360 industry intelligence portal. The platform brings together steel price data, price indices, market reviews and 12-month price forecasts, and can be customized for each user. MEPS invites interested parties to contact the company directly for more information.