Alfa Investor: Will gold rise in price to $10,000
A month ago, the consensus forecast for gold prices was $4,000 per ounce for the next 12 months. The precious metal reached this target in the second week of October, and analysts are revising forecasts again. Expectations of $5,000 by the end of 2026 are already emerging, and in the longer term, the most ambitious forecasts promise $10,000 per ounce, Alfa Investor writes.
On October 13, Bank of America and Societe Generale raised forecasts for 2026 to $5,000 per ounce, while Standard Chartered raised forecasts to $4,488. A week earlier, Goldman Sachs raised its forecast to $4,900 per ounce of gold.
Forecasts for the 2025 rally in the gold market, which began in mid-August at $3,350 per ounce and has not stopped yet, came as a surprise to most analysts. At the end of February 2025, Goldman Sachs expected gold at $3,100 by the end of 2025, and a year ago, in October 2024, the bank's analysts predicted only $2,900 per ounce.
In December 2024, Bank of America predicted that gold prices would reach $3,000 by the end of 2025. Societe Generale maintained a neutral view at the end of 2024, viewing precious metals as a diversification asset, but noting that prices may be under pressure due to high interest rates in the United States.
Standard Chartered, in its strategy for 2025 dated December 2024, recommended buying gold with a 6% share in the portfolio. In May, after rising prices, the bank expected consolidation in the region of $3,100, followed by an increase to $3,500 per ounce in the next 6-12 months.
Yardeni Research is the closest to predicting the current situation in the gold market from consulting firm Yardeni Research, which is headed by renowned financial market strategist Ed Yardeni. Yardeni turned its attention to gold in April 2024, when prices rose above $2,000, reaching new records. At that time, the company expected 3,000-3,500 dollars per ounce in 2025.
In October 2024, Yardeni experts noted that gold had become a hedge not against inflation, but against US sanctions after Russia's international assets were frozen in 2022. In this situation, China and other developing countries have begun to increase the share of gold in their government reserves.
In March 2025, Yardeni predicted $4,000 through the end of 2025 and $5,000 per ounce through the end of 2026.
When the gold price reached 4,000, Yardeni did not change the forecast for 2025 and 2026, but added that if gold continues this trend, it could reach 10,000 dollars per ounce by the end of the decade. In addition to the influx of funds into ETFs and purchases by Central banks, Yardeni cites US President Donald Trump's attempts to influence the Fed and the bursting of the real estate bubble in China, which forced investors to look for alternative assets.
On October 13, Bank of America raised its price forecast for 2026 to $5,000 per ounce, while