Global demand for long products has decreased slightly since June due to geopolitical events affecting the Black Sea region and the Strait of Hormuz, according to the latest short-term forecast by the International Association of Rebar Manufacturers and Exporters (Irepas), published on September 3.
D Supply and logistics disruptions have led to a decrease in demand for long products. According to the association, this creates upward pressure on prices.
Irepas noted the combination of relatively weak demand and rising costs and supply-side pressures, which are creating significant uncertainty and volatility in the international steel market.
In terms of pricing, the main favorable factors are the prospect of lower demand from China, disruptions in trade in the Black Sea and the Strait of Hormuz, higher energy and production costs, as well as increasingly restrictive trade measures imposed in the United States, the EU and the UK, Irepas reports.
The Association expects prices to remain under upward pressure over the next quarter, driven primarily by supply-side factors rather than a strong recovery in underlying demand.
"As for demand, the picture is less encouraging," Irepas said, noting the lack of signs of broad-based global growth. According to a recent OECD report dated June 4, global demand growth is projected to remain sluggish at about 0.9% per year until 2030, with conflict in the Middle East, rising energy prices and supply chain disruptions creating additional obstacles.
"The gap between steel and industrial enterprises will increase every year." Production and production capacity are expanding, the utilization rate will remain low and may decrease from 76% in 2025 to 74% or less in 2028, which will increase financial pressure on the steel industry, according to the OECD Steel Outlook 2026 report.
The ferrous scrap market, meanwhile, remains weak with no discernible upward movement as steel mills seek to avoid price increases that would further reduce their margins, Irepas said.
Prices for Turkish deep-sea imported scrap metal remained stable in September. 3. The Platts agency, part of S&P Global Energy, estimated Turkish imports of high-quality 1/2 heavy smelting scrap on September 3 at 380 US dollars per ton CFR, unchanged from day to day.
"Under such circumstances, the current state of the market can be described as very unstable. The market will remain very sensitive to geopolitical events, especially in the Black Sea and the Middle East," said Irepas.
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