Russian companies increased copper supplies to China by 81%
Russian manufacturers took advantage of the abolition of export duties on cathode copper and the redirection of global supplies to the United States. Demand for copper in China may grow in the second half of the year.
"Copper Factory". Illustrative photo: "Norilsk Nickel".
According to the results of the first half of 2025, the Russian Federation supplied more than 564 thousand tons of copper to China, which is 81% more than a year earlier, according to the data of the Customs Administration of the People's Republic of China, the Kommersant newspaper writes. The cost of supplies increased 2.5 times year-on-year, to $3.3 billion. The volume for the first half of 2025 is about 81 thousand tons less than the result of the whole of 2024 and exceeded the indicator for the whole of 2019.
According to customs data, in 2025, the largest volumes of supplies fell on copper ore and concentrates (339 thousand tons worth $1.1 billion) and cathode copper with more than 99.9935% of the metal (190.5 thousand tons worth $1.8 billion).
The increase in supplies in the first half of 2025 is due to the abolition of Russian export duties on cathode copper in force in 2024, Norilsk Nickel explains.
The company says that China is currently the most convenient market for the sale of Russian copper both in terms of liquidity (China's imports are many times higher than Russia's exports) and in terms of price, as there is usually a positive difference in copper prices between Chinese quotations on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) and global quotations on the London Metal Exchange (LME). In the western directions, Norilsk Nickel continues, there is pressure due to customers' self-restrictions.
Kirill Lysenko, an analyst on sovereign and regional ratings at Expert RA, explains the increase in copper shipments from Russia to China as a result of the continued redirection of exports and the slowdown in the Russian economy.
Copper powder. Illustrative photo: Uralelectromed.
"The slowdown in investment demand naturally has a negative impact on domestic purchases of non—ferrous metallurgy products and shifts sales plans towards foreign markets," he notes. Whereas in China, Ilya Makarov, director of the ACRA corporate ratings group, points out, there is a slight revival of business activity. Ahmed Aliyev, a leading analyst at T-Investments, draws attention to the news that China is building the world's largest hydroelectric power station in Tibet.
In addition, Mr. Aliyev notes, on the eve of the introduction of import tariffs of 50% on copper in the United States on August 1, the global market was in a certain imbalance, and against the background of speculative demand in the United States and a record premium on the COMEX exchange, companies could redirect supplies to this country, including from China. According to the analyst, under these conditions, Russian metallurgists could close the gap by increasing supplies to China.
Norilsk Nickel expects an increase in demand for copper in China in the second half of the year. Based on the results