The European rolled steel sector fell silent on Thursday, July 2, digesting the new EU import quotas announced earlier this week. Some local suppliers, especially in Italy, have left the market in order to evaluate the new offer prices.
Opinions regarding further price increases differed: some sources expected a sharp increase as early as next week, while others believed that the price increase would be gradual.
Two Italian sources reported the latest market price data at €680.00 ($776) per tonne from the plant, which were reflected in the index published on Thursday.
Fastmarkets Hot Steel Market Assessment - Price of rolled products for domestic consumption (exw, Italy) On July 2, it amounted to 680.00 euros per ton, an increase of 1.87% compared to the previous day from 667.50 euros per ton.
The indicator increased by 6.67 euros per ton week-on-week and by 2.50 euros per ton on a monthly basis.
One of the sources expects new offers to rise to 750 euros per ton from the plant next week, given the lack of competition within the country.
"I think a significant portion of the quotas for hot-rolled and cold-rolled coils will remain unfulfilled due to uncertainty related to the cost of the carbon boundary regulation mechanism[CBAM]," he said, predicting that imports of HRC will decrease by 60% year-on-year and CRC by 80%.
"Local factories in Italy have nothing to lose if they raise prices," he added.
Another participant in the Italian market was more modest in his forecasts. "As long as unsold volumes of August raw materials remain in Europe, liquidity will prevail over prices," he said. "As soon as some buyers assess the potential loss of volumes due to the inability to clear materials in the third quarter due to supplies from a single source, we will see how the picture changes. We expect a slight increase in prices for materials produced in September and further growth in the fourth quarter."
It was also quiet in Northern Europe, with no major sales heard during the day.
One of the buyers reported that on July 2, the plants offered 700-735 euros per ton from the plant, but these were not firm offers for August rental, which were expected to appear next week.
The same source, however, reported that the prices available for trading had not yet reached these levels, but it was difficult for him to estimate the levels available for trading due to the lack of trading during the day.
A source from among the sellers from the Benelux countries announced offers for August rental at a price of 700 euros per ton from the factory and 740 euros per ton from the factory for September rental. The last price was canceled because it exceeds the maximum time interval.
