According to EUROFER's forecast for the economy and steel market for 2026-2027 for the third quarter, total steel imports to the EU, including semi-finished products, decreased by 5% year-on-year in the first half of the year. Despite this, the European Union has retained its status as a net importer of steel.
Total imports decreased by 10% in the first quarter and by 2% in the second quarter. The share of imported products in total consumption decreased to 23% in the first quarter of 2026 from a record 37% in the last quarter of 2025.
Imports of finished steel products decreased by 3% in the first half of the year. Shipments of flat rolled products increased by 2%, while imports of long products decreased by 18%. The supply of rebar decreased by 23%, wire rod — by 21%, heavy rolled products — by 47%, cold—rolled sheet - by 17%. Imports of hot-rolled wide strips, on the contrary, increased by 14%.
Turkey accounted for 15.7% of all steel imports to the EU, China — 12.3%, South Korea — 12%, Indonesia - 8.8%, India — 7.7%, Ukraine — 6.6%. Shipments of finished steel from Turkey decreased by 16%, while imports from China increased by 40% and from Indonesia by 6.6%.
Steel exports from the EU to third countries decreased by 20%, while shipments of finished steel products decreased by 18%. Shipments to the United States decreased by 29%, to India — by 24%, to Turkey — by 21%.
The average monthly trade deficit, including semi-finished products, decreased from 1.985 million tons in 2025 to 1.769 million tons in the first half of 2026. The monthly deficit in finished products amounted to 1.035 million tons, of which 1.014 million tons accounted for flat rolled products.
In addition to trade data, the report also provides forecasts for steel production and consumption in Europe. Steel production in the EU in 2025 decreased by 2.9% and amounted to 125.8 million tons, which was the lowest figure in the history of observations. Capacity utilization increased from 65% in 2025 to 67% in the first quarter of 2026. Consumption of metal products increased by 1.5% in the first quarter of 2026.
Nevertheless, EUROFER expects growth to be only 0.1% by the end of the year, and accelerate to 2.3% in 2027. Even with this recovery, consumption is projected to remain about 7 million tons below the 2019 level.
The association also expects production in the steel industry to grow by 1.5% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027. At the same time, car production is projected to decrease by 0.9% this year.
