Mexico's trade balance returned to a deficit in January, driven by a seasonal drop in total trade, as well as 20.1% of oil sales since December.
Mexico reported a trade deficit of $6.48 billion in January, deviating from a trade surplus of $2.43 billion in December, the Inega statistical agency reported on February 27.
Total exports reached $48 billion in January, while imports totaled $54.5 billion.
This is compared with exports of $60.7 billion and imports of $58.2 billion in December.
Inegi attributed the shift in the trade balance in January to fluctuations in the non-oil balance: the deficit was $4.27 billion, compared with a surplus of $4.84 billion in December, while the oil trade deficit narrowed slightly to $2.21 billion in January from $2.41 billion in December.
The deficit was significantly larger than the forecast deficit of $3.24 billion. The Mexican bank Banorte, which noted that the shortage is typical for January due to "preloaded supplies from China ahead of the Lunar New Year celebrations."
In this case, according to Banorte, the broader deficit was due to the additional strengthening of the peso in January, moving to 17.66 pesos per U.
S. dollar from 18.07 pesos:1 U.
S. dollar in December.
. Looking ahead, Banorte sees additional volatility in 2026 in the balance sheet due to the changing
The tariff environment, including higher tariffs on certain goods imported from countries that do not have free trade agreements under Mexico's new customs legislation, as well as the upcoming process of extending the USMCA free trade agreement.
Non-oil exports increased 0.7% in January to $46.9 billion after falling 0.4% in December.
Manufacturing exports rose 0.1% to $43.5 billion in January after falling 0.5% in December.
However, car exports fell 2.3% in January to $11.3 billion after falling 5.3% in December.
In contrast, exports of non-automotive products rose 1.1% to $32.1 billion after rising 1.5% in December, while exports of agricultural products rose 5.9% to $1.9 billion amid relatively stable weather conditions.
Exports of non-oil minerals increased by 15% to $1.53 billion, following an increase of 3.6% in December and 16% in November.
Oil-related exports totaled $1.11 billion in January, including $608 million of crude oil and $502 million of petroleum products, due to lower prices and volumes.
Exports decreased by 20.3% from $1.52 billion in December.
Mexico's oil export basket averaged $55.34/bbl, which is $0.92/bbl. lower than in December and at $11.55/bbl. lower than a year earlier.
Crude oil exports fell to 355,000 barrels per day in January from 481,000 barrels per day in December and 597,000 barrels per day in November, as well as lower
