The Mexican Association of Financial Executives, IMEF, kept its GDP growth forecast for 2025-2026 unchanged in November, but warned that rising government debt could lead to lower credit ratings next year.
IMEF maintained its estimates of GDP growth for 2025 and 2026 at 0.5% and 1.3%, respectively, but stressed that GDP growth for 2026-2026 could be significant. There is a high degree of uncertainty in the forecasts for next year, citing the upcoming negotiations on the USCMA free trade agreement.
In addition, the group expressed concern about Mexico's public sector debt, which IMEF estimates at $1.067 trillion as of September, almost double the $560 billion reported by the Treasury Department in 2018. The total amount includes debt owed by Mexico's state-owned energy concerns, the oil company Pemex, and the utility company CFE, which were legally established as public companies as part of the 2024 reforms.
Announcing the resumption of Mexico's flexible credit facility on November 13, the IMF predicts that the debt share will rise to 60% of Mexico's total debt. GDP by 2030 and recommended reducing the annual deficit to 2.5% of GDP in the coming years.
"The problem is not only the growing debt," said IMEF. "The problem is that the economy is growing faster than GDP." Added to this is the inability of Pemex and CFE to repay their debts without federal support, the group said.
As of November 2025, Mexico's sovereign credit ratings from major agencies are below the average investment grade, with Moody's rating two notches above the speculative level at Baa2 with a negative outlook. Mexico's rating in S&P Global Ratings is also two notches higher than speculative at BBB with a stable outlook. Mexico's rating in Fitch Ratings is only one notch above the speculative BBB level, with a stable outlook.
IMEF stated that the downgrade of the investment rating would lead to a "significant depreciation" of the Mexican peso. The Group predicts that the peso-dollar exchange rate will be 18.8 pesos per US dollar by the end of 2025, compared with 19.00 pesos per US dollar projected in September. The currency was trading at 18.3 pounds per 1 dollar on Tuesday, compared with 20.8 pounds per 1 dollar in April due to the weakening of the dollar this year.
Victor Herrera, head of IMEF's economic research department, said that "as the positive and negative news about the USMCA begins in this way, in 2026 we may see a change in the exchange rate in one direction or another."
In its November review, IMEF lowered its year-end inflation forecast to 3.8% from 4% in October. Annual Consumer Price Index
