Global economic growth in 2022 will slow from 6.1% in 2021 to 3.6% in 2022 and 2023 (3.3% in advanced economies and to 3.8% in developing ones), according to the World Economic Outlook of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). At the same time, after 2023, GDP growth will decrease to 3.3% on average until 2027. The downgrade of the forecast for developed countries for 2022–2023 amounted to 0.6 p.p., to 3.3%, and 0.2 p.p., to 2.4%, respectively.
The most significant was the revision of GDP growth estimates for the eurozone countries (growth 2.8% instead of 3.9%) and the UK (3.7% instead of 4.7%), the least — for the United States (growth 3.7% instead of 4%), which is explained by the dependence of European countries on energy carriers.
In January, the IMF believed that the growth rate of emerging economies would slightly decrease - from 4.8% in 2022 to 4.7% in 2023, but now analysts expect them to fall to 3.8% in this and accelerate to 4 .4% next year. The change in estimates is associated with a significant reduction in the forecast for 2022 for developing countries in Europe (from growth by 3.5% to a fall of 2.9%) and for Russia in particular (from growth by 2.8% to a fall of 8.5% ), since sanctions have been imposed against the Russian Federation, and Eastern Europe is experiencing difficulties due to the rupture of direct economic ties with the Russian Federation. The revision of growth rates was from 4.8% to 4.4% for China and from 9% to 8.2% for India, which are relatively less affected by the crisis around Ukraine. In general, this year everything will grow worse this year, except for exporters of oil that has risen in price, including Saudi Arabia (revision from 4.8% to 7.6%) and Nigeria (from 2.7% to 3.4%), as well as Brazil ( from 0.3% to 0.8%), which is likely to receive more profit from the sale of rising food prices.
The war in Ukraine, according to the IMF, caused an increase in commodity prices and increased price pressure, which led to an upward revision of the inflation forecast for 2022 - to 5.7% in developed countries and up to 8.7% in developing countries, this is 1.8 and 2.8 percentage points higher, respectively, than was forecast in January.
