According to calculations by Peter Fertig, an analyst at MBI Infosource, average steel prices in Germany and Europe next year may be lower than in 2025.
For hot-rolled coils, his predictive model predicts the most likely price of 575 euros per ton (US$676) in 2026, compared with an average price of 597 euros in 2025.
It should be borne in mind that this year's prices were at a low level in the spring, and then reached a maximum of 650 euros or more in mid-April, which led to lower prices. currently, the market is experiencing an increase in the average price above 570 euros.
Given that players do not expect a significant price increase until the end of the year and probably will not expect it in 2026, the assumption of a lower average price in 2026 is not mathematically incorrect. However, Fertig's model does not exclude fluctuations that may be even wider than those observed this year. In his opinion, in the best case, the price will be 715 euros per ton, in the worst case - 505 euros.
Speaking at the MBI Stahltag conference in Frankfurt/Offenbach this week, Fertig noted that the eurozone Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) has recovered slightly this year and exceeded a critical level. The index is 50 points.
However, Germany remains below 50 points, mainly due to high energy costs. Moreover, the overall volume of orders in the eurozone remains weak, Fertig noted at the event attended by Callanish. He added that factories need to keep production at a low level in order to be able to maintain their prices.
Fertig's forecast model for cold-rolled steel provides a baseline scenario of 660 euros per ton in 2026, with a best-case scenario of 775 euros and a worst-case scenario of 595 euros. The base price for fittings is projected at 600 euros. In the best and worst cases, the price of rolled rebar is higher than in the case of rolled rebar, and amounts to 645 and 560 euros, respectively. Similarly, the cost of a wire rod can range from 740 to 620 euros, while the most likely price, according to the data presented by Fertig at the conference, is 675 euros.
Christian Kel Germany
Kallanish.com
