According to German analyst Peter Fertig from MBI Research, prices for most flat and long products should decrease by 1-3% in the future by the end of October.
Compared to the current level, the hot-rolled roll will fall by 3%, says Fertig, based on the quantitative forecasting model of MBI Research in its latest report.
[b]Callanish[/b]believes that this is somewhat more pessimistic than his previous report published earlier in September, which suggested a 1% drop. This also applies to sheet metal, which was rated stable in the previous report, but is now expected to fall by 3%.
Positive dynamics is observed in relation to cold-rolled and galvanized coils, but the growth potential has also decreased from +3% to the present +1%. As for the current prices in Germany, he notes that the price for HRC is 575 euros/ton (US$675), CRC is 657 euros/ton and hot-dip galvanized roll is 680 euros/ton. Competing with EU factories, he cites prices for Chinese materials at $482 per ton for HRC and $540 per ton for CRC on FOB terms in China.
As for long products, Fertig predicts a decrease in prices for rebar and wire rod by 3% and by 1% for a trading bar. Regarding the current domestic prices for long products, it offers 599 euros per ton of rebar, compared to 612 euros per ton previously, and 671 euros per ton of wire rod, compared to 684 euros. This is comparable to China's export prices, which are $441 per ton of rebar and $472 per ton of wire rod.
Christian Kel Germany
Kallanish.com
