During his speech at the SteelOrbis 2025 Autumn conference and the 93rd IREPAS meeting, held in Munich on September 28-30, Alexander Gordienko, Export Director of the Spanish CELSA Group, began by emphasizing that in July this year, the IMF forecasts global GDP growth of 3.0 percent compared to the previous year. up to 3.3% growth in 2024, indicating a decrease in potential demand for steel by 25 million tons.
. He added that developing Asian countries are expected to grow by more than five percent, noting that 88% of the growth is in countries outside of China, indicating that many developing countries are doing well economically.
Speaking about construction, Mr. Gordienko said that the construction sector in the EU is recovering this year, but only in the infrastructure sector, where housing construction is blocked by bureaucracy, while in the United States there has also been a decrease in construction volumes - by 19 percent since 2019, while infrastructure spending over that period The same period increased by 14 percent. There is no hope of recovery in China, and demand for steel in the residential sector has decreased by 45% compared to 2019.
Based on worldsteel data for August 2025, the CELSA representative noted that India is emerging as the country that has increased steel production the most, with an increase of more than 10 percent year-on-year between January and August. He noted that India produces as much as Japan and Russia combined. On the other hand, over the same period, the countries of the Middle East and Southeast Asia also showed an increase in steel production.
Gordienko also called Chinese steel exports "the leader in this field," saying that as of July 2025, Chinese steel exports increased by 10% year-on-year, while exports of rebar and wire rod from China increased by 50 percent, and exports of semi-finished steel products increased by 310 percent year-on-year. calculus. He stressed that 2025 will be a record year for Chinese steel exports, and will certainly exceed the figures for 2015-16.
Stagnating demand and rising trade tensions
Compared to 2020 and 2025, the consumption of rolled products decreased by nine percent, and "as more and more new capacities are put into operation, we will have to reduce costs, so production volumes will not grow soon." - Said Gordienko. Considering the capacity utilization figures, he noted that with the expected commissioning of 165 million tons of EDP in 2027, the capacity utilization rate will decrease to 73.1 percent. He also explained that each decrease by a percentage point means an idle capacity of 18 million tons, which is equal to
