During his presentation at the SteelOrbis 2025 Fall 2025 Conference and the 93rd IREPAS Meeting, held in Munich on September 28-30, Dr. Heinz-Juergen Buchner, an independent commodity consultant, highlighted trade tensions, industry growth prospects, and the energy transition as determining factors for the global steel industry, the future of the steel industry.
Noting that the growth of the construction industry and the population promises long-term growth in steel demand, Dr. Buchner said that high tariffs and energy costs, as well as geopolitical tensions, remain challenges for the steel industry.
Global economic prospects: IMF raises growth forecasts for 2025
In its forecast updated at the end of July 2025, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said it expects slightly higher global economic growth (+0.2 percent) for 2025 than in its April forecast for 2025, forecasting three percent growth this year and 3.1 percent by 2026. The main reason for the slight improvement in the forecast is, first of all, a slight reduction in US trade tariffs against its most important supplier countries. Dr. Buchner noted that the Asia-Pacific region still has significant growth potential, especially in Indonesia, the Philippines and Malaysia, while the prospects for Africa and the Middle East are uneven due to geopolitical conflicts. South Africa, Canada, Brazil, and especially Mexico are particularly affected by high U.
S. tariffs, while Turkey is particularly affected by high inflation and weak consumer demand.
The automotive industry is under pressure from US tariffs
Dr. J. Buchner noted that the production of light vehicles is expected to decrease slightly to 89.2 million units in 2025. The constant attacks by the United States on the global trade order through new tariff threats make it increasingly difficult for all exporters to plan, while there are significant differences in customs duties on passenger car imports, which often depend on the goodwill or political views of the US president.
Construction industry growth will boost long-term demand for steel
According to the NMSC consulting firm, the global construction market is projected to grow from $11.4 trillion in 2024 to $16.1 trillion by 2030. Population growth and investments in infrastructure, especially in renewable energy sources, will contribute to this expansion. The global population is expected to reach 8.57 billion by 2030 and almost 9.7 billion by 2050, leading to increased demand for steel.
