European buyers are still showing a restrained interest in importing hot-rolled rolled products from a number of countries, seeking to meet their needs for the near future. According to sources, orders have recently been placed in Turkey and India.
At the same time, uncertainty remains in the market related to the CBAM mechanism. Although it is expected that payments on it will become effective in 2027, the standard figures for 50% of CBAM certificates will be applied until the confirmed emission values become available. According to market participants, this complicates calculations for importers. One of the sources explained that previously many expected to declare underestimated estimates, but now they will have to pay the full amount first, and then wait for a possible adjustment after checking the data.
Some of the interviewees believe that there will be no direct refund, and the difference can be compensated through tax breaks, energy benefits, or offsetting in future periods. Traders point out that there is confusion in the market: in some cases, participants expected costs of 50-60 euros per ton of slabs, but now, according to them, they will have to pay almost three times more.
According to one of the sources, this means that significant amounts will be frozen, and it will be difficult for small companies to withstand such conditions, since they will have to make advance payments of millions of euros.
Meanwhile, shipments continue, and the market is trying to assess the situation amid reports of lobbying efforts aimed at relaxing CBAM payment rules in the EU. According to sources, deals with Turkish rental were recorded at 565-575 euros per ton, excluding duties, which is 10-15 euros per ton higher than previous levels.
In addition, new supply deals from India were reported for 700-710 dollars per ton CFR for the fourth quarter, whereas previously prices were at the level of 680-690 dollars per ton CFR. Some sources claimed that small batches were also sold for 720 dollars per ton CFR. Egypt, apparently, also continues to sell in limited volumes: the latest offers were called at $ 725 per ton CFR, while buyers are targeting $ 700-710 per ton CFR.
In the domestic market of hot-rolled products in the EU, the high quotations of plants have not yet been confirmed by transactions, and buyers are mainly limited to purchases for minimal needs. In Italy, prices are in the range of 740-750 euros per ton, with individual deals being about 10 euros per ton lower. In general, the supply remains limited, and the available volumes mainly fall in October.
In Spain and the Nordic countries, real prices are kept at 735-745 euros per month.
