Hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices in Europe rose in the week to October 23, but trading activity remains low due to weak apparent demand.
European distributors have built up significant stocks of flat steel. In June, they cleared large volumes of products through customs ahead of the introduction of tighter quotas, which took effect after July. Demand has yet to recover, so inventories are being drawn down more slowly than usual.
Market participants say buyers are purchasing only the volumes they lack in their product ranges.
Despite the small number of deals, market sentiment is positive: tariff-rate quotas (TRQs) and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) have made imports more expensive and restricted, increasing the share of European producers.
In Northwest Europe, locally produced HRC deals were concluded at EUR750–770/t ex-works. Offers for first-quarter deliveries reached EUR790–800/t delivered. Some steelmakers said they had already sold out of all HRC for first-quarter delivery.
Regional mills have also started discussing contracts for the first half of next year and for all of 2027. They are seeking price increases of EUR100–150/t compared with the second half of 2026. Market participants expect contracts will ultimately be concluded at a premium of around EUR50–80/t.
In Italy, locally produced HRC was assessed at EUR740–750/t ex-works and EUR740–770/t delivered. Some deals were still concluded at lower prices, at EUR730/t delivered.
Imported HRC prices are comparable to offers from European mills, ranging from EUR740/t DDP at Italian ports for material already there to EUR800/t DDP for new orders. Buyers also risk exceeding available quotas and facing duties of 50%. However, Dow Jones Energy analysis indicates that actual duties may be lower than expected.
On a CIF basis, HRC from the Far East, India and Turkey was offered at EUR740–750/t, including anti-dumping duties where applicable.
With imported coil availability limited, some traditional HRC importers have switched to buying steel slabs from outside the EU to use as feedstock for rolling at European facilities.
Green steel market
Demand for green coil in the spot market remains weak, with deals mainly involving small trial batches. Automakers and construction projects remain the main sources of demand for low-emissions steel. Most buyers are still focused on adapting to new trade restrictions and securing supplies of conventional steel.
Green HRC premiums vary depending on the producer, buyer and contract terms. Premiums of around EUR200/t have been reported for project sales and long-term contracts. A Southern European producer quoted the same premium—EUR200/t—for products from its electric arc furnace (EAF) mill. In the spot market, the premium for EAF-produced green HRC is typically around EUR100/t, which is roughly the level buyers consider acceptable.
Some steelmakers cite green steel premiums of up to EUR300/t, but confirmed levels are lower. Project deals were concluded at premiums of around EUR200/t, while trial sales by other producers reportedly came with premiums of about EUR150/t.
Distributors remain reluctant to keep low-emissions steel in stock and usually buy it against confirmed end-user orders. In the spot market, buyers are generally willing to pay around EUR100/t above the conventional price for green steel. This reflects weak demand and caution about paying extra for lower-emissions material.
| Weekly European steel coil prices | |||||
| EUR/t | Delivery terms | October 23, 2026 | Change | ||
| Weekly steel coil prices in Northwest Europe | |||||
| HRC, Northwest Europe, ex-works | EX-WORKS | 760.00 | 10.00 | ||
| Cold-rolled coil (CRC), Northwest Europe, ex-works | EX-WORKS | 865.00 | 0.00 | ||
| Hot-dip galvanized coil (HDG), Northwest Europe, ex-works | EX-WORKS | 855.00 | 5.00 | ||
| HRC, Northwest Europe, CIF | CIF | 640.00 | 0.00 | ||
| HRC, Northwest Europe, DDP port | DDP Port | 780.00 | 30.00 | ||
| Weekly steel coil prices in Southern Europe | |||||
| HRC, Italy, ex-works | EX-WORKS | 740.00 | 10.00 | ||
| HRC, Southern Europe, CIF | CIF | 640.00 | 0.00 | ||
| HRC, Southern Europe, DDP port | DDP Port | 775.00 | 25.00 | ||
| CRC, Southern Europe, CIF | CIF | 720.00 | 0.00 | ||
| CRC, Southern Europe, DDP port | DDP Port | 865.00 | 25.00 | ||
| Source: McCloskey by OPIS. | © 2026 Dow Jones Energy Limited. |
| Weekly green steel prices | |||
| EUR/t | Delivery terms | October 23, 2026 | Change |
| Green HRC premium in Northwest Europe (Scope 1–3 emissions below 0.8 t CO₂) | 100.00 | 0.00 | |
| Green HRC in Northwest Europe, ex-works (Scope 1–3) | EX-WORKS | 860.00 | 10.00 |
| Green HRC premium (Scope 1–2 emissions below 0.5 t CO₂) | 100.00 | 0.00 | |
| Green HRC in Northwest Europe, ex-works (Scope 1–2) | EX-WORKS | 860.00 | 10.00 |
| Price of lower-carbon HRC (Scope 1–3) | 74.06 | 11.44 |
Authors: Benjamin Steven and Maria Tanatar
opisnet.com
