New taxes on carbon dioxide emissions associated with the full implementation of CBAM may contribute to the recovery of scrap stainless steel prices in the EU by the end of 2025.
The average price of 304 stainless steel scrap in Europe, according to the European Parliament, decreased by 7.4% in the first six months of 2025. for the year, it recorded a 22.6% year-on-year drop in June. The interviewed MEPs indicate that supply prices are currently at a multi-year low.
The downward trend is partly due to international trade tensions caused by the United States doubling import duties on steel to 50%. Also, one of the factors is the expectation that the decline in steel demand in Europe will increase in the summer.
However, the long-term decline in the price of stainless steel scrap is also a consequence of increased purchases by European stainless steel manufacturers of inexpensive alternative materials. Imports of stainless steel slabs have increased as low profitability forces manufacturers to look for alternative, low-cost production methods.
In particular, high energy costs reduce the ability of European plants to compete with cheap imports of Asian-made stainless steel. According to market data released by the European Energy Exchange, wholesale energy prices in Europe increased by more than 15%, to 92.29 euros per megawatt hour, from a 13-month low of 80.10 euros recorded in mid-April. Many European Parliament respondents expect further price increases in July.
The growing influence of Indonesian slabs
ISSB data shows that imports of stainless steel slabs to the EU increased by 43.6% year-on-year, to 42,539 tons, in the first two months. the months of this year, when re-rolling became a viable alternative to the production of stainless steel based on EDP. This increase is due to a 20.7% year-on-year increase in imports of stainless slabs to Russia in 2024.
In addition, ISSB data indicate the growing role of low-cost slabs of Indonesian production. In 2024, the UK remained the main supplier of stainless slabs to the EU, accounting for 201,229 tons out of a total volume of 263,967 tons. However, last year, 60,446 tons of Indonesian slabs entered the EU through Italy, with imports recorded in July, September and November. Import data show that in the first two months of this year, volumes increased further due to the delivery of 19,934 tons of slabs of Indonesian origin to Italy in February. Imports from the UK for the same period amounted to 22,554 tons.
The CBAM effect
However, access to this cheap raw material may be limited due to the introduction of
