Analysts have slightly raised their forecasts for prices on the EU carbon market for the next couple of years, according to Reuters.
According to the expectations of 10 experts surveyed by the agency, the average price of carbon allowances (EUA) will be €92.65/ton in 2026, and €107.29/ton in 2027. In October, they predicted €91.11 and €106.94, respectively.
Analysts also predict trading volatility this year, as the value of the base contract will vary depending on gas prices in Europe.
As noted by Noemi Zurcher, senior Carbon Markets and policy Analyst at Rystad, in the short term, EU CO2 prices will continue to correlate with gas prices. However, as new industrial players gradually abandon free quotas, demand will gradually shift towards industrial needs and prices, depending on the cost of decarbonization technologies.
Hege Fjellheim, head of carbon analysis at Veyt, says they expect European carbon prices to rise sharply over the next few years (starting in 2027) due to tighter annual market balances.
The average EUA price forecast for 2028 was €110.9/ton, which was little changed from the October forecast of €110.2/ton.
