Ukraine is likely to come in the winter with record stocks of natural gas, even if the import of hydrocarbons will slow down with their high pace in April.
Ukrainian reserves of natural gas in storage at the end of winter were at a record level for the last year and since then it has risen still above average as a lively import contributed to strong injections.
Stocks were in April at the level of 16.6 billion cubic meters, which is significantly higher than the three-year average on may 1, amounting to 8.6 billion cubic meters.
the Decline in production this summer may lead to a reduction in the consumption and production of gas of own production. Aggregate production has decreased to 56.2 million m3 / day in January-April, with 58.5 million m3 / day a year earlier. The decrease was mainly due to the decline in production at the state enterprise "Ukrgazdobuvannya" (UGV), the largest manufacturer of the country, which changed its manufacturing strategy in June 2019.
Consumption has remained relatively constant in recent years. But this summer, it can fall sharply if measures to contain the outbreak Covid-19 and the economic slowdown will continue to weigh on demand, adjusted for weather conditions.
October 1, this will lead to an increase in reserves to 24.1 billion m3, which is much higher than the current maximum for the last year of October 1, 20.4 billion m3, installed last year. In may-September, imports would have to fall to 14.8 million m3 / day, which is much slower than in any recent year, to the reserves were consistent with last year's 20.4 billion m3.
Ukraine in January-April 2020 increased imports of natural gas by 1.6 times (1.5 billion cubic meters) compared with the same period of 2019 to 3.9 billion cubic meters.
In April 2020 imports amounted to 1,131 billion cubic meters of gas, which is 29% higher than in April 2019.
in addition, imports may continue to rise this summer. Growing imports may be due to the fact that the store is cheaper than in neighboring markets, as well as the flexibility afforded by the programs of the country on short-term delivery and customs warehousing, which provide firms with access to vast opportunities of Ukraine as a storage and re-export of gas.
This summer, European companies can widely use this service to help balance the markets further West, given the high stocks in other places.
during the summer can be difficult to sustain import growth of 29% per year during the year, as it will lead to an increase in imports to 77.3 million m3 / day from may to September with almost 60 million m3 / day last summer, which is a record figure for this period, and higher than imports on any day from October 2016.
But even if the import will stay at 60 million cubic meters per day, the reserves may total Oct 27.3 billion m3, which is close to the maximum volume of Ukrainian storage facilities, calculated around 31 billion m3.
