According to OPEC, world oil demand next year will average 99.86 million barrels per day, which is 3.28 million barrels per day. higher than the expected figure for 2021 and close to the level of 2019 (99.97 mln bbl /d). In the second half of 2022, oil consumption will exceed 100 million barrels per day, OPEC predicts.
The organization expects an increase in oil demand due to the ongoing Covid-19 vaccination program. But at the same time, there is uncertainty about the pace of recovery in demand due to the risk of new strains of coronavirus, the authors of the forecast note.
The countries participating in the OPEC + agreement at online meetings on July 1-2 and July 5 considered a plan for a monthly increase in production in August-December 2021 and discussed the possibility of extending the agreement itself until the end of 2022, but could not accept decision due to disagreements between two OPEC countries - Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
A new date for the OPEC + meeting has not yet been set, and members of the agreement continue informal consultations.
According to the OPEC forecast, the production of liquid hydrocarbons in non-OPEC countries in 2022 will reach 65.85 million barrels per day, which is 2.1 million barrels per day. higher than the forecast for the current year. Growth in production of liquid hydrocarbons is expected next year in the United States, Russia, Brazil, Norway, Canada, Guyana, Kazakhstan, China, India, Oman, Qatar, Great Britain and Azerbaijan. Production decline may occur in Egypt, Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia.
Demand for oil produced by OPEC countries will increase by 1.1 million barrels per day in 2022. compared to the current year, up to 28.7 million barrels per day, the organization predicts.
In June, oil production in OPEC amounted to 26.03 million barrels per day, which is 586 thousand barrels per day higher than the level of May, according to the OPEC report. This estimate is based on secondary sources such as Argus.
Commodity stocks of oil in the countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in May increased by 8.3 million barrels. compared to a month earlier, to 2.93 billion barrels. This figure is 276.9 million barrels. lower than in May 2020, and by 21.7 million barrels. lower than the average for 2015-2019.
