The global heavy truck market is projected to grow from $312.1 billion to $475.5 billion by 2035, according to Global Market Insights. However, along with the growth, the industry is facing a whole range of systemic problems, from electrification and automation to competition from Chinese manufacturers.
One of the main brakes remains the weak charging infrastructure. Hildegard Muller, president of the German Automobile Industry Association VDA, points out that there were only 355 truck charging points in Germany in July. By comparison, 4,200 such stations are planned to be deployed in the country by 2030. Without this, the mass transition to electric trucks will be extremely difficult.
The regulatory agenda is also increasing the pressure. To achieve a 45% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2030, manufacturers and carriers will have to increase their use of zero-emission vehicles much faster. In the meantime, the market remains predominantly diesel, while alternative power plants occupy a small share.
Autonomous trucks are another hope for the industry. They can help alleviate the shortage of drivers that many companies face. Projects involving DAF, Einride, Aumovio and Aurora are already underway in this area. But market participants estimate the timing of the actual introduction of such machines in different ways: some experts believe that mass use is still far away.
Software is becoming an equally important area. Manufacturers are betting on trucks that will be able to receive updates on their own, notify in advance of the need for maintenance and integrate into digital transport platforms. This idea is being promoted, in particular, by a joint venture between Daimler Truck and Volvo called Coretura, as well as TRATON One OS. However, the pace of implementation is hindered by small production volumes and a long lifecycle of key components.
China remains a serious pressure factor. SuperPanther, Windrose, Farizon, Sinotruk and BYD are actively expanding their presence, especially in the electric truck segment. Their lower prices can significantly change the balance of power in the market.
At the same time, industry representatives emphasize that price competition alone is not enough. New players will have to prove the reliability of technology, build a service network and provide after-sales support in order to gain a foothold in the segment and seriously compete with recognized global manufacturers.
