The balance between supply and demand in the global long products market continues to deteriorate, further exacerbated by the recent decision of the Trump administration to raise import duties on steel products to 50 percent. This step, taken without prior notice, caught many exporters by surprise and added a new level of instability. These newly introduced trade barriers – protective for a few but punitive for many – are forcing market participants to rethink their commercial strategies for the US market.
Meanwhile, buyers have taken a wait-and-see attitude amid rumors that countries such as Mexico and Canada may seek to increase exports. partial or complete exemption from this measure. At the same time, discussions have intensified among suppliers, traders, and end users about who will shoulder the additional costs for supplies that are already en route or arriving at U.
S. ports.
The most acute difficulties are experienced by American importers, many of whom are currently facing significant losses or we are forced to cancel pending orders. While domestic demand in the United States remains stable, local prices for long products are starting to rise under the protection of new duties. However, these prices are still not high enough to justify new import orders. In addition, persistently high interest rates continue to deter investment and slow down construction activity. At the moment, only a few domestic manufacturers are really benefiting from the current situation.
Globally, it is becoming increasingly difficult to compete with China and Southeast Asia. Beijing's efforts to stimulate the economy have not produced the expected results, and exports of rolled products from the region remain high, putting pressure on other Asian exporters. In Europe, cheap imported raw materials from Asia, further facilitated by the weak US dollar, puts pressure on local producers, who are also facing rising energy prices. If demand does not recover after the summer holidays, production cuts across the region cannot be ruled out.
Against the background of continued volatility and uncertainty, the long products market remains structurally weak. Hopes for lower interest rates in both the United States and Turkey represent the only glimmer of optimism, although there are no concrete signs of relief yet. At the moment, July and August are expected to be transitional months, and the potential market recovery will be postponed to the post-summer period.
